Challenges of the Decade 2010-2020 in Asia and Beyond,The Root Causes And The probable solution

Making predictions is hazardous business. After all, who would have forecast with any accuracy the Soviet defeat in Afghanistan and the fall of the Berlin wall in late 1980s, or the terrorists attacks of September 11, 2001, or the near-collapse of the US financial markets in 2008, the kind of events that fundamentally changed the world. This new decade of 2010-2020 could also bring long-lasting but hard to predict events that are described by Nassim Taleb as rare but high-impact Black Swan Events. However, I do think this new decade is likely to be defined by the fundamental issues of access to food and water, in addition to the continuing concerns about terrorism and security. Each of these challenges has the potential to precipitate major events that could bring about fundamental yet unpredictable changes in the world order.

Asia in today’s world face the main challenge of the combined adverse effects of A combination of population explosion, water scarcity, and climate change.
The problems arising out of it and the probable solution may be discussed as under:
1. Food:

A combination of population explosion, water scarcity, and climate change are causing serious concerns about access to affordable and reliable food supply in many nations. Climate change in parts of India has resulted in multiple crop failures after seven or eight bad years in a row, putting local people deeper and deeper in debt. An estimated 200,000 Indian farmers have ended their lives since 1997.

There has been a rush by some of the rich but food-poor nations to buy up farmland to grow food in poor nations, raising concerns about the potential for food riots. New ideas and technologies are required to bring about a new "Green Revolution" to feed the growing population of the world.

In June, news agency Reuters reported that the government of Pakistan had offered 404,700 hectares (ha) of farmland for sale or lease to foreign investors. It is the usual suspects of the Gulf states and South Korea who are the likely targets of the government's drive for investment. Oil rich, food poor states from the Middle East and food deficit prone South Korea have been spurred by the high food prices of 2007 and 2008 to increase their food security by investing in agricultural land abroad.

Also in June 2009, Swedish multi-national food company Tetra Pak announced the signing of an memorandum of understanding with local company Engro Foods to create a dairy hub in the Sahiwal district of the Punjab. The hub will serve 15 villages in the district and aims to promote more efficient production and bring smallholders into the formal dairy market chain.

In July, the Pakistani minister for investment said that the country would be happy to provide land for Korean companies to build food and dairy processing facilities, according to Pakistan Agribusiness Report. Also in July, the chief minister of the Punjab said that there was a large amount of interest in investing in the province's agriculture from Qatar.

2. Water:

The year began with an ominous warning by Sardar Aseff Ali, Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission, about the potential for a water war between India and Pakistan. Such warnings clearly reinforce the gravity of the water situation, requiring creative solutions.

Water is becoming more scarce, and water wars are likely to erupt in several regions of the world. Among the 25 most populous countries in 2009, South Africa, Egypt and Pakistan are the most water-limited nations. India and China, however, are not far behind with per capita renewable water resources of only 1600 and 2100 cubic meters per person per year. Major European countries have up to twice as much renewable water resources per capita, ranging from 2300 (Germany) to 3000 (France) cubic meters per person per year. The United States of America, on the other hand, has far greater renewable water resources than China, India or major European countries: 9800 cubic meters per person per year. By far the largest renewable water resources are reported from Brazil and the Russian Federation - with 31900 and 42500 cubic meters per person per year.

According to the United Nations' World Water Development Report, the total actual renewable water resources in Pakistan decreased from 2,961 cubic meters per capita in 2000 to 1,420 cubic meters in 2005. A more recent study indicates an available supply of water of little more than 1,000 cubic meters per person, which puts Pakistan in the category of a high stress country. Using data from the Pakistan's federal government's Planning and Development Division, the overall water availability has decreased from 1,299 cubic meters per capita in 1996-97 to 1,101 cubic meters in 2004-05. In view of growing population, urbanization and increased industrialization, the situation is likely to get worse. If the current trends continue, it could go as lows as 550-cubic meters by 2025. Nevertheless, excessive mining of groundwater goes on. Despite a lowering water table, the annual growth rate of electric tubewells has been indicated to 6.7% and for diesel tubewells to about 7.4%. In addition, increasing pollution and saltwater intrusion threaten the country's water resources. About 36% of the groundwater is classified as highly saline.
Water connects us in the most fundamental way . We cannot survive without it. Moreover, water is intrinsically linked to the most immediate challenges we face today, including food security, health, climate change, economic growth, and poverty alleviation . Water problems in Asia today are severe—one out of five people (700 million) does not have access to safe drinking water and half of the region’s population (1 .8 billion people) lacks access to basic sanitation . As population growth and urbanization rates in the region rise, the stress on Asia’s water resources is rapidly intensifying . Climate change is expected to worsen t he situation. According to the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change, by 2050, more than one billion people in Asia alone are projected to experience negative impacts on water resources as a result of climate change . Experts project that reduced access to fresh water will lead to a range of consequences, including impaired food production, the loss of livelihood security, large-scale migration within and across borders, and increased geopolitical tensions and instabilities . Over time, these effects will have a profound impact on security throughout the region. In an effort to address this emerging crisis, Asia Society—working in partnership with the Earth Institute’s Water Center at Columbia University, the Asia Pacific Water Forum and the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars—launched a Leadership Group on Water Security to examine decreased access to a safe, stable supply of water as a driver of political and socioeconomic instability in Asia . Th rough this report, the Leader ship Group focuses attention on some of the most significant current and future water-related challenges facing Asia and puts forward an agenda in support of cooperative approaches to prevent, manage, and respond to water scarcity and its impacts .
While Asia and the world is in the grips of an economic crisis, it is clear that common efforts to solve water-related challenges are needed now more than ever. Access to clean water and sanitation is a necessity, not a luxury. With effective planning and leadership, this resource crisis can be transformed into a catalyst for la sting cooperation between countries and across communities.



The solution to the water crisis lies in better management of water resources to conserve water and new technologies to economically recycle or produce fresh water from sea water. For example, about 98% of the water in Pakistan is used in farming through a very inefficient flood irrigation method, leaving only two percent for other consumers and commercial-industrial users. A California study recently found that water use efficiency ranged from 60%-85% for surface irrigation to 70%-90% for sprinkler irrigation and 88%-90% for drip irrigation. Potential savings would be even higher if the technology switch were combined with more precise irrigation scheduling and a partial shift from lower-value, water-intensive crops to higher-value, more water-efficient crops. Rather than flood irrigation used in Pakistani agriculture, there is a need to explore the use of drip or spray irrigation to make better use of nation's scarce water resources before it is too late. As a first step toward improving efficiency, Pakistan government has launched a 1.3 billion U.S. dollar drip irrigation program that could help reduce water waste over the next five years. Early results are encouraging. "We installed a model drip irrigation system here that was used to irrigate cotton and the experiment was highly successful. The cotton yield with drip irrigation ranged 1,520 kg to 1,680 kg per acre compared to 960 kg from the traditional flood irrigation method," according to Wajid Ishaq, a junior scientist at the Nuclear Institute for Agriculture and Biology (NIAB).

3. Low-Cost Housing:One of solution

Housing construction by traditional methods has failed to keep pace with the rising demand, particularly in the developing countries like India and Pakistan experiencing rapid urbanization. New, cheaper and faster construction methods are needed to address the basic shelter needs of the people. There are a number of modular, pre-fabrication and rapid on-site assembly methods are being explored in developing nations.

4. Mass Literacy will prove to be a mile tone:

Literacy has become as fundamental a need as food and water in this day and age. And yet, UNESCO data indicates that 770 million adults around the world remain illiterate, over 35% of them in India. New focus and methods are needed to reach out to the illiterate masses of the world as part of a worldwide mass literacy campaigns.

Low levels of literacy continue to hobble many developing nations, limiting the productivity and economic opportunities for the growing young populations, and causing concerns about social and political instability and growth of international terrorism.

5. Health Care Needs urgent attention:

Access to healthcare in South Asia, particularly due to the wide gender gap, presents a huge challenge, and it requires greater focus to ensure improvement in human resources. Though the life expectancy has increased to 66 years in Pakistan and 63 years in India, it is still very low relative to the rest of the world. The infant rate remains stubbornly high, particular in Pakistan, though it has come down down from 76 per 1000 live births in 2003 to 65 in 2009. With 320 mothers dying per 100,000 live births in Pakistan and 450 in India, the maternal mortality rate in South Asia is very high, according to UNICEF.

6.International Terrorism:

The threat of global terrorism is likely to gain strength and spread with new bases in new geographies. A new and more creative and comprehensive strategy will be necessary to counter this growing threat in the realm of ideas and policies. Any new strategy must take into account the following facts to be effective:

1. Al Qaeda was an organization with central leadership, command and control located in Afghanistan prior to 911. But that is no longer true. According to former State Department official Mathew Hoh who served in Afghanistan, al Qaeda is an elastic, amorphous entity, one based not on geography but ideology. “Al Qaeda is a collection of ideas, of independent, autonomous cells,” Hoh says. “They don’t need a lot of funding. They need an apartment with an Internet connection.”

2. Even the 911 hijackers were not all recruited and trained in any one country. They came from different nations and were educated and trained mostly in the United States and Western Europe. What they shared in common was an ideology rather than a geography.

3. Hundreds of al Qaeda members, including many top leaders, have been captured or killed by Pakistani and US military in the region since 911. And yet, the violence is worse than ever before.

4. There have been multiple reports of al Qaeda popping up in several countries around the world such as Yemen and Somalia, confirming Mathew Hoh's arguments that al Qaeda is not confined to a particular geography in central or south Asia.


7. Security: A major concern

With the increasing carnage in several countries, including Pakistan, and growing fears of terrorism, there is an urgent need to develop and use new tools, technologies and methodologies to anticipate and prevent acts of terror resulting in mass casualties.

8. Counter-insurgency:

There are many insurgencies growing around the world, including South Asia, in response to real or perceived injustices. In addition to the Afghan Taliban insurgency against foreign forces, other examples include Taliban and Baloch insurgencies in Pakistan, and Maoists and Kashmir insurgencies in India.

In addition to the political dialog to understand and address genuine grievances of the insurgents, there is a great need to develop techniques and training for counterinsurgency.

9. Green Energy:

Clearly, conservation alone will not suffice when it comes to the world's growing energy needs. There will continue to be significant research and development into exploiting energy from water, wind and sun, as well as innovation in safer and greener nuclear technology such as thorium nuclear reactors.

10. Extreme Affordability:

The incredible success of relatively inexpensive mobile telephones in poor nations, such as Bangladesh, India and Pakistan, has created the awareness among the big corporations and the entrepreneurs that the poor can be a very lucrative market.

Understanding the need to design for extreme affordability with scarce resources is giving birth to a new generation of entrepreneurs. These are entrepreneurs with a social conscience who are motivated by the desire to do good and do well at the same time. They are finding new ways to empower the poor by satisfying their basic needs, such as water, electricity and telephones.

11. Conclusion:

Regardless of any forecasts of the future, it is extremely important for all nations of the world, particularly the United States, China, the United Kingdom, Israel, Iran, India, North Korea and Pakistan to learn from the mistakes of the last decade to try and make the new decade a better stretch of ten years for the entire humanity. This will require sincere efforts and creative energies of the people from the aforementioned countries and the help of the rest of the world.